Authored By: Sarah
05 Feb 2025

Green Ammonia Market 2024-2028: Trends, Drivers, and Regional Insights

The green ammonia market is witnessing rapid growth, driven by the increasing demand for sustainable and eco-friendly energy solutions. The market is projected to grow by USD 3.21 billion from 2023 to 2028, at an impressive CAGR of 113.07%. This growth is primarily driven by rising environmental concerns, scarcity of non-renewable resources, and the need for sustainable agricultural practices. Green ammonia, which is produced using renewable energy sources, offers a carbon-neutral alternative to traditional ammonia, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and contributing to the fight against climate change.

Global green ammonia market 2024-2028

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Market Segmentation

The global green ammonia market can be segmented based on applications, technologies, and regions. Understanding these subsegments is crucial for identifying growth opportunities in the coming years.

Application Outlook

The green ammonia market is expected to see substantial growth in the following applications:

  1. Power Generation: Green ammonia is becoming increasingly important in the power generation sector, used in biomass power generation and gas turbines. The rising demand for electricity in urbanized regions, particularly in developing countries, is a key driver.
  2. Transportation: The use of green ammonia as a marine fuel is gaining traction. The shipping industry is looking for low-carbon alternatives to reduce environmental impact and comply with global emissions regulations.
  3. Industrial Feedstock: Green ammonia is used as a feedstock in various industrial processes, including the production of commodity chemicals.
  4. Others: Green ammonia is also finding applications in sectors like refrigeration, where it serves as a refrigerant.

Technology Outlook

The production of green ammonia relies on advanced electrolysis technologies, which are categorized into the following:

  1. Alkaline Water Electrolysis: This technology uses water, electricity, and air to produce hydrogen, which is then used in ammonia synthesis.
  2. Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM): This advanced electrolysis method is gaining traction due to its high efficiency and ability to operate under a wide range of conditions.
  3. Solid Oxide Electrolysis: This technology is still emerging but holds promise for improving the overall efficiency of green ammonia production.

Regional Market Trends

The green ammonia market's growth trajectory varies across different regions, with each region experiencing unique trends and drivers.

North America

  • The U.S.: As one of the largest producers and consumers of ammonia, the U.S. is expected to play a significant role in the green ammonia market. Increased investments in clean energy technologies, particularly in renewable energy and hydrogen production, are expected to drive the demand for green ammonia.
  • Canada: Canada is also focusing on sustainable energy solutions and clean ammonia production, bolstered by government initiatives supporting green energy transitions.

Europe

Europe is anticipated to contribute 37% to the growth of the global green ammonia market. This is largely due to:

  • Increased research and development (R&D) in hydrogen production.
  • Government support and investment in clean energy technologies.
  • The rise of electric vehicles and growing awareness of the negative environmental impacts of traditional energy sources.

Key Countries in Europe:

  • U.K.
  • Germany
  • France
  • Rest of Europe

Asia-Pacific (APAC)

APAC is set to be a high-growth region, with rapidly growing economies such as China and India contributing significantly to the demand for green ammonia.

Key Countries in APAC:

  • China
  • India

Middle East & Africa

The Middle East and Africa region are expected to grow steadily, driven by the need for sustainable energy solutions and the development of green ammonia production plants.

Key Countries in Middle East & Africa:

  • Saudi Arabia
  • South Africa
  • Rest of the Middle East & Africa

South America

South America is emerging as a potential market for green ammonia, with countries like Argentina, Brazil, and Chile focusing on sustainable agricultural practices and renewable energy sources.

Key Countries in South America:

  • Argentina
  • Brazil
  • Chile

Key Market Drivers and Dynamics

The introduction of green ammonia has sparked significant interest due to its potential to mitigate carbon emissions. In particular, green ammonia is produced by electrolyzing water to produce hydrogen, which is then combined with nitrogen to form ammonia. This process eliminates the need for fossil fuels, unlike conventional ammonia production methods, which release harmful carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. As nations shift towards decarbonization and renewable energy, green ammonia plays a pivotal role in various sectors, including power generation, transportation, and agriculture.

Key market drivers include:

  • Carbon Neutrality: Green ammonia serves as a sustainable alternative, contributing to the reduction of carbon emissions in industrial, agricultural, and energy sectors.
  • Energy Storage and Hydrogen Fuel: As a hydrogen carrier, green ammonia is gaining popularity for energy storage and as a fuel for fuel cells.
  • Sustainable Agriculture: The shift towards organic farming practices and eco-friendly fertilizers has increased demand for green ammonia as a key ingredient in biofertilizers.
  • Environmental Regulations: With stricter emission standards, especially in the maritime industry, green ammonia is emerging as a viable alternative fuel.

Market Trends

The green ammonia market is expanding rapidly, fueled by several significant trends that highlight its potential in addressing environmental and energy challenges. These trends include:

  1. Increased Investments in Green Ammonia Projects: Investments in green ammonia production are on the rise, driven by the growing demand for carbon-neutral solutions and environmentally friendly energy. For instance, the Energy Technology Development and Demonstration Programme (EUDP) funded an USD 11.9 billion green ammonia project in 2023. This initiative aims to build a 10 MW green ammonia plant directly connected to local wind and solar power generation.

  2. Hydrogen as a Key Element: The role of green ammonia as a hydrogen carrier is gaining importance, with its use as a low-carbon fuel in energy storage solutions and transportation gaining momentum. It is increasingly seen as a critical enabler for decarbonizing industries and providing sustainable fuel options.

  3. Adoption of Electrolysis Technology: Advancements in electrolysis technology, particularly in alkaline water electrolysis and proton exchange membrane electrolysis, are driving the growth of green ammonia production. The improvement in electrolyzer efficiency and the reduction in costs are expected to accelerate the market adoption of green ammonia.

  4. Government and Industry Support: Several governments around the world, particularly in Europe and North America, are offering support for green ammonia projects as part of their decarbonization goals. Financial incentives and subsidies are making it easier for companies to invest in green ammonia production plants, further accelerating market growth.

  5. Sustainable Agriculture Focus: Green ammonia is becoming a vital component in the sustainable agriculture sector, where it is used as a biofertilizer. The increasing focus on reducing the environmental impact of fertilizers is a key trend that is propelling demand for green ammonia.

Market Challenges

Despite its potential, the green ammonia market faces several challenges that could impede its growth:

  1. High Initial Production Costs: One of the major barriers to the widespread adoption of green ammonia is the high initial cost associated with producing green hydrogen. Green hydrogen costs are 2-3 times higher than those of gray hydrogen, making it less feasible for industries like steel, fertilizer, and shipping to adopt this alternative fuel.

  2. High Setup Costs for Production Facilities: The high capital costs associated with establishing green ammonia production plants are a challenge for many companies. While the technology for green ammonia production is advancing, the cost of setting up new plants and integrating renewable energy sources remains a significant hurdle for scaling up production.

  3. Lack of Infrastructure: The infrastructure required to support green ammonia production and distribution is still in its nascent stages. A robust distribution network for green ammonia needs to be established, especially for sectors like shipping, where ammonia could replace conventional marine fuels.

  4. Technological Barriers: While electrolysis technology has made significant strides, challenges remain regarding the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of these technologies. Additionally, scaling up production and optimizing electrolyzer performance are still major hurdles that need to be overcome for the green ammonia market to reach its full potential.

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Key Market Players

The green ammonia market is highly competitive, with several key players leading the charge in innovation and project development. The following companies are actively shaping the future of green ammonia:

  • AquaHydrex Inc.
  • BASF SE
  • CF Industries Holdings Inc.
  • Cummins Inc.
  • Enapter S.r.l.
  • ENGIE SA
  • Greenfield Nitrogen LLC
  • Hiringa Energy Ltd.
  • ITM Power PLC
  • MAIRE S.p.A.
  • MAN Energy Solutions SE
  • McPhy Energy SA
  • Nel ASA
  • OCI NV
  • Siemens AG
  • Starfire Energy
  • thyssenkrupp AG
  • Topsoes AS
  • Uniper SE
  • Yara International ASA

These companies are implementing strategies such as partnerships, mergers, and technological innovations to expand their footprint in the green ammonia market.

Recent Market Developments

Several developments have been reported in the green ammonia market, highlighting advancements in production and project funding:

  1. EUDP Green Ammonia Project (2023): The EUDP (Energy Technology Development and Demonstration Programme) funded an USD 11.9 billion green ammonia project. This initiative, led by several key companies, aims to build a 10 MW green ammonia plant connected to local wind and solar power generation. The plant’s construction is expected to be completed in 2023.
  2. BASF SE’s Green Ammonia Catalyst (2023): BASF SE introduced an ammonia oxidation catalyst, AMOX, designed to prevent ammonia from reaching the atmosphere during production, reducing environmental impact.
  3. Development of Ammonia Production Facilities (2023): Several companies have announced plans to develop green ammonia production plants globally, supporting the transition to renewable energy sources.
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